- "Money makes the world go around, It makes the world go 'round. A mark, a yen, a buck, or a pound, A buck or a pound, A buck or a pound, Is all that makes the world go around, That clinking clanking sound, Can make the world go 'round."
Cabaret / - Voice of Sally Bowles (Liza Minelli).
The ART MARKET, how to describe it?
"An enormous bubble, a second previous to bursting" or a "Solid Investment opportunity with high profit assured" The two descriptions circulate together. We all must agree that prices reached in the last 20 years have become totally indecent and out of any logic, but it seems that there is enough money out there to keep it running higher and higher... The only sure thing is that with 10 million USD in the 50's you could buy the Guggenheim collection and today it is totally out of reach no matter how much money the Arabs or Chinese could be willing to pay. NYFA has a very interesting article by Todd Gibson called "What happens when the bubble bursts" This section tries to give a clear view of why Modigliani is so complicated and difficult to work with. The notes concentrate on paintings, with brief remarks on drawings and sculpture.
It is going to be short in drawings, it could have been much more "meaty" but it is really difficult to follow the track of so many drawings "by Modi" that are almost daily on sale or at auction only the principal sales are listed.
Sculpture is much more easy, only a few still in private hands (10) and the rest are located in main museums (17 to be exact of a total of 27 confirmed, -33 probable ones-).
THE RECORD IN SCULPTURE:
A Modigliani sculpture sold in Christie’s Paris in July 2010. Tête de Caryatid, 1910-12, soared over its very conservative €4m-€6m estimate, going to an anonymous phone buyer for €43.2m. (57,000,000 USD)
The piece, which had been part of the Gaston Lévy collection since 1927 is an exceptional work. Actually in the hands of Dmitry Rybolovlev.
THE RECORDS IN PAINTINGS:
Nu Couche" sold in Christie’s New York in November 2015. Sold to a Chinese buyer for the indecent quantity of $ 170,405,000 USD.
The piece, which had been part of the Netter, Gualino, Mattioli collections....
Nu couche sur le cote gauche or the "grand nu" sold in Sotheby's NY in May 2018. Sold to an unknown buyer for the incredible amount of:
$ 157.159.000 USD
The work has a Zborowski, Netter , Private coll Paris, private coll. USA provenance.
Take note that in November 1984 Sotheby's NY sold one of the best nudes for the quantity of 4.620.000 USD
So the price has incremented x 36 in just 34 years.
So painting is the most interesting task to work at a first glance to give a clear idea, go to the art market situation for Modigliani to focus it more:
1.- General situation for Modigliani's market
2.-
Auction houses
3.-
Commercial Galleries
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| 1.- GENERAL SITUATION FOR MODIGLIANI'S MARKET |
While during his lifetime he was always on the verge of survival, 90 years after his death he is one of the most expensive and searched for prizes for the wealthy collectors.
The biggest part of his masterworks (mainly the nudes and the kids, both can be named as his most desired production) are in first names collections or in public museums so when a masterwork like " La belle romaine" gets onto
the market you can see the
wealthy and rich biting each other for the "thing."
To get a Modigliani for the living room is a complete landmark for the rich, it can be easily recognizable by others and fits the owners into the select club of the "indecently rich."
Apart from social reality, if you are going to pay 10 million for a dead shark in a tank and your living room is going to have a formaldehyde half rotten fish smell for the rest of your life,
to acquire a Modigliani shows much more taste and culture...
So the facts are:
- Modigliani is recognizable by all the audiences.
- To have one means status in capital letters.
- Rich and wealthy collectors want one.
- There is a Market for everyone.
- There are many unscrupulous dealers and some decent dealers.
- Modigliani's work is limited and scarce.
- The fights of the experts means a lack of trust so that means fewer available works.
- The Art market is a bubble that seems endless, so prices are still increasing more and more.
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Extract from: "The Expert versus the Object. Judging fakes and false attributions in the Visual arts" Ronald D. Spencer. Oxford University press, 2004. LINK
Page 98, the role of the catalogue raisonné in the art market, by Peter Kraus.
History of the catalogue raisonné in Modigliani's work seems a real soap opera.
It is difficult to do justice to the intricacies of the situation within the confines of this essay, so what follows is a simple summary, Modigliani died in 1920 at the age of 35 years. In 1929, Arthur Pfannstiel published the first serious study of his work, which was reissued in 1956 along with a catalogue raisonné. In 1958 and 1965, an Italian scholar, Ambrogio Ceroni, published a two-volume catalog of the paintings and drawings by Modigliani. Ceroni is so far the only universally accepted authority on Modigliani. He died in 1970, and we know that while everything is indeed from Modigliani in the catalog, there is a considerable volume of work missing, and there begins the novel.
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Modigliani's work has so much demand that the figures of undoubted works are on the verge of reaching 9 figures. This expansion happened during the last ten years, previously his prices were more or less normal.
Prices of undoubted works in Ceroni can reach 8 figures minimum.
Besides Modigliani's remarkable sales record, there is also a Modigliani fever, the romantic, bohemian life of the "maudit" genius.
Some raw & cold data: |
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In resume, the main market by volume still in the drawings, it's much less unregulated while paintings increases
Prints and cast even in non original ( or fake, who cares...) still in the same |
 |
The evolution is not clear, yes it is an exponential increase x 35 in some cases while in others it is contaminated by the nudes,
a portrait of a children or a nude really moves the water while a portrait of a writer or a friend just make some little waves. |
The main country of buyers still the US but Russia and China have step 2 and 3
The main place for selling stills in NY & London ( Sotheby's /Christie's) |
A work in Ceroni's catalogue still lead the race.
a work in any other just can expect a local auction. |
On compilers still cited in the market:
MR remains cited only occasionally, we have recently seen some mentions in sotheby's but not as the main source.
Probably he has lost his magic moment ( and future doesn't seem bright ...)
Parisot is now totally discarded, not even mentioned.
By one side it's a pity it took so long to discard him, on the other thank god finally.
The Modigliani Project is not recorded here as a regular auction-house authority
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A working observation:
More mess with experts means more doubts
More doubts means lower number of works for the market
less works means more price
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| | 2.- AUCTION HOUSES | Auction houses are the perpetrators and those responsible for what's good and what's bad in the commercial situation of the work by Modigliani.
The two majors, Christie's and Sotheby's, say even in public they do not trust present experts (see Liz Taylor Modigliani affair) and they only bring to the floor the works listed by Ceroni.
They face the fact that Ceroni's catalogue is full of gaps and in some cases strong mistakes but for them it is reliable and trustable, until a better one comes...
Until then, it remains as the only valid source, the other experts are just "people passing by"...
Everyone outside the art world (even the common buyers) think that they are the main source for getting knowledge, expertise or discovering lost works.
The truth is that their work is to sell not to certify or expertise (that is only for the press release...)
To do expertise or discoveries, they work with experts (not their employees) that change from time to time and they do not feel or are responsible for the given opinion by those experts (in any legal or moral terms).
The notes below concentrate on paintings. Drawings are almost impossible in auction terms, drawings is where the new experts earn "prestige", drawings at auction are omitted here.
| - Here is a brief description of Sotheby's & Christie's biggest features (all listed in Ceroni), some works not in Ceroni, and a conclusion in numbers and data to explain the game...
- After an analysis the result is:
- 1.- Fewer works at auction = 370% increase in prices.
2.- Fewer works bought-in (unsold) than with any other major artist = less risk for the auction house.
3.- 370% increase in prices = 400% benefit in 5 to 9 years term. - Fewer works, more profits...
| | | WORKS INCLUDED IN CERONI: | | | | | SOTHEBY'S
Nu assis sur un divan
(La Belle Romaine)
New York, November 2010
Ceroni Nº 192 Price:
68,962,500 USD | SOTHEBY'S
Jeanne Hébuterne
New York, Nov. 2010
Ceroni Nº 174 Price:
19,122,500 USD | SOTHEBY'S
Jeanne Hébuterne au collier
New York, May 2010
Ceroni Nº 173 Price:
13,802,500 USD | SOTHEBY'S
Jeunne Femme
(Totote de la Gaite)
London, June 2007
Ceroni Nº 210 Price:
6,479,184 USD | | | | | SOTHEBY'S
Garçon à la Veste Bleu
London, June 2004
Ceroni Nº 259
Price:
9,593,674 USD | SOTHEBY'S
Giovanotto dai capelli rossi
New York, November 2002
Ceroni Nº 301 Price:
8,479,500 USD
NY, 1984 Price: 1,900,000 USD
442 % BENEFIT | SOTHEBY'S
Fillette assise en robe
New York, November 2000
Ceroni Nº 240 Price:
14,200,000 USD | CHRISTIE'S
Oscar Miestchaninoff
New York, November 2007
Ceroni Nº 153 Price:
30,841,000 USD
NY, 1995 Price: 9,352,500 USD
+ 300 % BENEFIT
| | | | | CHRISTIE'S
Jeune fille assise en chemise
New York, November 2007
Ceroni Nº 264 Price:
16,841,000 USD
NY, 1998 Price: 4,842,500 USD
+400 % BENEFIT | CHRISTIE'S
Jeune fille au béret
London, February, 2007
Ceroni Nº 244 Price:
11,899,348 USD | CHRISTIE'S
Homme au chapeau
London, February, 2007
Ceroni Nº 88 Price:
7,726,340 USD | CHRISTIE'S
Vénus (Nu debout, nu médicis)
New York, November, 2006
Ceroni Nº 189 Price:
15,920,000 USD
| | | | | CHRISTIE'S
Homme assis sur fond orange
London, June, 2006
Ceroni nº 273 Price:
6,723,264 USD | CHRISTIE'S
Le buste rouge (Cariatide)
London, June, 2006
Ceroni nº 38
Price:
6,413,640 USD | CHRISTIE'S
La servante au tablier raye
New York, November, 1998
Ceroni nº 123
Price:
3,082,500 USD | CHRISTIE'S
Fillette assise
New York, November, 2000
Ceroni nº 225 Price:
5,286,000 USD | | | | | CHRISTIE'S
Beatrice Hastings devant une porte
New York, November, 2002
Ceroni Nº 81 Price:
4,189,500 USD | CHRISTIE'S
Moïse Kisling seduto
New York, November 2005
Ceroni Nº 107 Price:
5,616,000 USD | CHRISTIE'S
Les deux filles
London, February, 2009
Ceroni Nº 242 Price:
9,400,566 USD | CHRISTIE'S
Donna con collana rossa
New York, May 2005
Ceroni Nº 237 Price:
4,608,000 USD | | | CHRISTIE'S
Nu couché
New York, November, 2003
Ceroni Nº 184 Price:
26,887,500 USD | SOTHEBY'S
Nu couché
New York, May, 2018
Ceroni Nº 184 Price:
157.159.000 USD | CHRISTIE'S
Le fils du concierge
New York, May, 1999
Ceroni Nº 239
Price:
5,502,500 USD
| SOTHEBY'S
Le fils du concierge
New York, November, 2006
Ceroni Nº 239
Price:
31,096,000 USD | | |
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Conclusion: Children report faster benefit than nudes even if their prices are much lower
| | WORKS NOT INCLUDED IN CERONI | | | | | MILLON & ASSOCIES
Le couple
Paris,June,2010
By MR
By Christian Parisot /
By J. Lanthemann
Estimate: $538,850
Bought In / UNSOLD | BONHAMS
Woman portrait
London, June, 2011
By MR
By J. Lanthemann Price:
2,593,003 USD | BONHAMS
Christina
London, June, 2004
By MR
By Christian Parisot Price:
2,213,122 USD | BONHAMS
Young woman with black hair
London, February,2012
By MR
Est.: $ 1,100,000 - 1,600,000 Price:
1,112,749 USD | Sales outside Ceroni remain thinner at the two principal houses.
Just take a look at this:
Works offered with an MR opinion alone showed a lower result in 2012 than in 2004–2011.
A Parisot opinion without another compiler is not treated as sufficient in those rooms. |
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| | 3.- ART GALLERIES | Even more darker and obscure than the Auctions.
Here it becomes a person to person exchange so it's very difficult to see commercial galleries with Modigliani works for sale in open view.
After the Knoedler case, private gallery sales are treated as less transparent than public auctions (auctions suffer from public exposure, but what happens inside a gallery, stays in...)
| On Modigliani, only a few deal in that high rank as to be able to sell works undoubted, on them the main is the Nahmad Gallery.
A request to the Nahmad Gallery, New York, for pigment samples was refused. The exchange, as recorded at the time, was:
Gallery: OK this Modigliani seems to be fine, but we can't help you.
Inquiry: Why not?
Gallery: Because we do not need to be part of the studio.
Inquiry: But you will get a complete studio of yours for free and with total confidentiality.
Gallery: Yes, but not interested...
Inquiry: C' mon please...
Gallery: Sorry, the only thing I can tell you is that if you tried to sell me this beautiful work I would not accept it even if you bring a photo of Modigliani next to the painting, original invoice by the artist or even a letter by him saying it's original.
Inquiry: for god sake...
Gallery:Sorry that the way the thing are at this moment, maybe in a few years they change...
Inquiry: OK Thank you anyway.
Gallery: Sorry, wish u luck. bye
To know more on the Nahmad galleries, just look at this nice links:
1.- Helly Nahmad Gallery Raided by FBI in Russian Mob Probe (ARTFLIX DAILY, 18/04/2013)..................LINK
2.- Agents Descend on a New York Gallery, Charging Its Owner (NEW YORK TIMES, 16/04/2013)........LINK
Similar conversation with other 4 ones...
| CONCLUSSION:
, they are doing business, they don't want to know nothing of any possible risk. | A very nice example of how trust they can be:
| German police believe American actor, Steve Martin may have been a victim in what is being called the biggest art fraud scam in that country’s history.
A report in the German newspaper Der Spiegel says investigators at Berlin’s state criminal police office (LKA) believe that in July 2004 Martin unwittingly purchased a fake copy of Landschaft mit Pferden, (Landscape with Horses), a 1915 painting by the German-Dutch modernist Heinrich Campendonk, from a Paris gallery, Cazeau-Béraudière.
Beltracchi and the fake work sold to Steve Martin
He paid an estimated €700,000 (around $850,000 at the time), after receiving assurances of the painting’s authenticity from a Campendonk expert,
who identified the artist’s signature in a panel on the back of the painting. At that price, Martin’s acquisition was considered a bargain.
Steve Martin paid $850,000 for fake painting, report says
Read More on this fakes scandal>>
Vanity fair >>
| This is exactly the same gallery owner that worked during 2 decades for the Wildenstein that said in an interview the next sentence:
"I prefer to have a Modigliani painting that once hung in the apartment of Paul Guillaume than a painting in Ceroni">>
20 years after R's catalogue is published, everybody will forget Ceroni">>
| 2nd Worst both at Tefaf / not my opinion is the opinion of Blouin Artinfo:
The booth of Jacques de la Béraudière (Geneva) was approached with caution by potential buyers. Formerly named Galerie Cazeau-Béraudière,the gallery had been involved in the Beltracchi-scandal, which uncovered a number of faked paintings, including a work by Max Ernst, “Tremblement de la Terre” (1925), which had been shown on TEFAF in 2004.
THE SOLUTION TO THE SCANDAL: CHANGE YOUR NAME AND GO ON... |
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| Another lovely example related to Modigliani & how much we should trust the source to buy
Helena Rubinstein amassed a huge art collection, hundreds of pieces of African art (to Guillaume many of them), Modigliani, Derain, she was friend of Picasso, etc. etc
She was one of the most respected, richest and strongest woman on her time.
She had millions to spare and lots of people to receive advice from
She was one of the best customers of Paul Guillaume Gallery where she acquired her Modigliani's.
and she was sold at least 6 fake Modigliani ( and 2 good ones Mme. Dorival with hat and woman with blue scarf)
So if you think you are much more smarter than a woman who made herself to millionaire in a time when woman couldn't open a bank account without their husband signature...
| Just to remember:
This is exactly the same gallery owner that worked during 2 decades for the Wildenstein that said in an interview the next sentence:
"I prefer to have a Modigliani painting that once hung in the apartment of Paul Guillaume than a painting in Ceroni">>
20 years after R's catalogue is published, everybody will forget Ceroni">>
..
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